Study: Human-caused climate change worsened Horn of Africa drought

A multi-national collaborative effort by scientists has found that human-induced climate change worsened drought severity in the Horn of Africa. That drought has left 4.35 million people in need of humanitarian aid.

The scientists said the effects of the extraordinary drought are severe, causing widespread crop failure and hunger. They said more than 8.4 million Somalis are expected to face crisis levels of acute food insecurity by June.

"Climate change has made events like the current drought much stronger and more likely; a conservative estimate is that such droughts have become about 100 times more likely," the scientists wrote in their report. "While more and better designed social protection systems and humanitarian funding may help decrease poverty and increase resilience to shocks when they occur, certain crops, animals, and by extension livelihoods may become increasingly difficult to sustain in the changing climate."

If human-caused global warming had not happened, the scientists found, the conditions in the Horn of Africa would not have caused a drought.

"We found that, as a result of human-induced climate change, the combination of low rainfall and high evapotranspiration as unusual as the recent conditions would not have led to drought at all in a 1.2 degrees Celcius cooler world," they wrote."In today's climate, the same event is now classified as an exceptional drought with major crop and pasture losses and widespread water shortages. This change in drought severity is primarily due to the strong increase in evaporative demand caused by higher temperatures."

Scientists from the United States, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa and the Netherlands assessed "to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the low rainfall that led to drought, as well as the increase in evaporation due to climate change, exacerbating drought severity. "

The team of scientists concluded that the impacts of the drought are "far-reaching" impacting the health, food security, livelihoods, displacement, electricity infrastructure, security, and governance of the affected countries.

The impacts differ by country based on vulnerability and exposure factors that determine severity, with Somalia's fragility particularly limiting people's ability to meet basic needs, driving displacement and increased mortality," they wrote.

The current Horn of Africa persistent drought is the worst in 40 years according to the World Meteorological Organization.

UNICEF, the United Nations Children's Fund warned in August 2022 that people could die in devastating numbers in the Horn of Africa region from catastrophic water shortages.