Saharan dust clouds pose growing risk to solar power stability across Europe

Saharan dust clouds pose growing risk to solar power stability across Europe
by Erica Marchand
Paris, France (SPX) May 05, 2025

As Europe increasingly depends on solar energy to reach climate and energy independence goals, a persistent atmospheric issue is adding uncertainty to the equation: Saharan dust. Research presented at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU25) highlights how windborne mineral dust from North Africa is significantly impacting photovoltaic (PV) energy generation and complicating forecasting models.

Dr. Gyorgy Varga and a team of researchers from Hungarian and other European institutions examined data from over 46 Saharan dust events recorded between 2019 and 2023. Their findings cover both Central Europe, including Hungary, and Southern European nations such as Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece. The researchers found that these dust intrusions disrupt the accuracy of conventional PV output forecasts, which often rely on fixed aerosol assumptions and fail to respond dynamically to real-time atmospheric changes.

Each year, the Sahara emits billions of tonnes of fine dust into the air, with tens of millions of tonnes reaching Europe. These particles reduce surface-level solar irradiance by scattering and absorbing sunlight and by increasing cloud formation, thereby lowering PV efficiency. According to the study, current forecasting systems lack the sensitivity to handle these transient events.

To improve predictive reliability, the researchers advocate incorporating real-time dust measurements and aerosol-cloud interaction data into solar forecasting models. "There's a growing need for dynamic forecasting methods that account for both meteorological and mineralogical factors," says Varga. "Without them, the risk of underperformance and grid instability will only grow as solar becomes a larger part of our energy mix."

The study also highlights physical degradation issues caused by dust, such as contamination and surface erosion of solar panels. These effects can diminish long-term efficiency and increase maintenance demands. The research is part of wider European and Hungarian initiatives to enhance climate adaptability and optimize renewable energy systems, with support from the National Research, Development and Innovation Office (FK138692), the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and the EU-funded National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change.

Research Report:The shadow of the wind: photovoltaic power generation under Europe's dusty skies